Recent volatility across global energy markets has brought familiar questions back into focus for Southeast Asia. How exposed are ASEAN power systems to external fuel shocks? What role should gas continue to play? Can energy transition objectives be maintained without compromising affordability and reliability? And what happens when new sources of demand, from data centres to electrified industries, arrive faster than infrastructure can respond?

These questions formed the backdrop of a recent Enlit Asia 365 webinar, bringing together perspectives from PLN Energi Primer Indonesia, GPSC, KPMG, S&P Global and HDF Energy.

While the discussion began with the implications of geopolitical developments and fuel market volatility, it quickly evolved into something broader - a reflection on how utilities developers and policymakers are reassessing long held assumptions about the future power system.

Several themes emerged repeatedly throughout the conversation.

1. ENERGY SECURITY HAS RETURNED TO THE CENTRE OF THE CONVERSATION

For much of the last decade, energy transition discussions were largely framed around decarbonisation. Today, energy security is once again shaping strategic decision making. The discussion highlighted how events far beyond Southeast Asia’s borders continue to influence domestic power systems through fuel prices, LNG markets and subsidy burdens.

As Deven Chhaya, Partner, Infrastructure Advisory at KPMG observed:

“The destination still remains energy transition, but the path to energy transition has changed.”

The shift is not necessarily away from decarbonisation. Rather, energy transition is increasingly being evaluated through the additional lenses of resilience, sovereignty and affordability. For ASEAN governments and utilities, securing reliable access to energy is becoming just as important as reducing emissions.

2. THE ENERGY TRILEMMA IS NO LONGER THEORETICAL

The concept of balancing affordability, security and sustainability has long existed within industry discussions. The difference today is that utilities are having to navigate all three simultaneously.

Rakhmad Dewanto, Chief Executive Officer of PLN Energi Primer Indonesia, described this challenge directly:

“We still need to maintain what we understand as an energy trilemma. First is security, then affordability, and sustainability.”

For many ASEAN markets, rising fuel costs and growing electricity demand mean trade-offs are becoming more visible. Governments are under pressure to maintain affordable tariffs, utilities must ensure reliability, and long-term climate commitments remain in place. The challenge is no longer defining the trilemma. It is managing it in practice.

3. GAS REMAINS CENTRAL TO ASEAN'S TRANSITION PATHWAY

Despite increasing LNG prices and concerns over fuel market volatility, none of the panellists suggested gas would lose its relevance in the foreseeable future. Instead, gas continues to be viewed as a critical bridge between existing generation fleets and future renewable dominated systems.

For Indonesia, the position was particularly clear.

“Gas is the energy transition in Indonesia,” said Dewanto.

While Indonesia continues to pursue ambitious renewable energy targets, gas remains essential for supporting reliability, flexibility and growing demand. The discussion reinforced a reality often overlooked in energy transition debates: while renewables are expected to grow significantly, dispatchable generation remains necessary to maintain system stability. For much of ASEAN, gas continues to occupy that role.

4. COAL'S ROLE IS BEING REASSESSED RATHER THAN ELIMINATED

One of the more unexpected perspectives came from Arjan van den Broek, Executive Vice President, Project Director and Advisor for Map Ta Phut Decarbonisation at GPSC. Rather than discussing coal solely as a fuel to be retired, he suggested that existing coal assets may increasingly serve as strategic reserve capacity during periods of market disruption.

“You keep your coal plant. It does not mean you have to run them, but you keep them in your background as a kind of backup.”

This reflects a broader shift in thinking. Instead of viewing coal through a binary lens of operating or retiring, some stakeholders are beginning to consider whether existing assets may have a future role in supporting resilience and energy security. It does not signal a return to coal led growth. It signals a reassessment of how existing infrastructure can support system reliability in an increasingly uncertain world.

5. DATA CENTRES ARE EMERGING AS A MAJOR DRIVER OF POWER DEMAND

Few topics generated as much interest as the rapid growth of data centres across the region. Utilities are increasingly finding themselves planning for new demand profiles that differ significantly from traditional industrial customers.

In Indonesia, Dewanto noted that data centres are becoming one of the most significant drivers of electricity demand growth.

“The biggest driver is data centre.”

The implications extend well beyond demand forecasts. Data centres require reliable power, increasingly seek access to cleaner energy sources, and often expect infrastructure to be delivered at unprecedented speed. These requirements are beginning to influence generation planning, transmission investment and discussions around energy procurement. As digitalisation accelerates across Southeast Asia, data centres are rapidly becoming a power sector issue rather than simply a technology sector issue.

6. NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE BECOMING COMMERCIALLY RELEVANT FASTER THAN EXPECTED

Rising fuel costs are changing investment calculations. Technologies that previously struggled to compete economically are attracting renewed interest as businesses seek alternatives to volatile fuel markets.

Chhaya noted that projects once considered difficult to justify are now being revisited.

“What you would have normally put on the top shelf of your cabinets are now being dusted and brought back into the picture.”

The technologies mentioned throughout the discussion included battery energy storage, biomass, virtual power plants, AI enabled grid management, hydrogen and ammonia. The common theme was not necessarily climate ambition, but economics. As fuel costs rise and system flexibility becomes increasingly valuable, new technologies are beginning to move from future concepts towards commercially relevant solutions.

7. THE BIGGEST BARRIER TO RENEWABLES MAY NO LONGER BE TECHNOLOGY

Perhaps the most important observation for policymakers was that renewable deployment challenges are increasingly shifting away from technology itself. The economics of solar, wind and storage continue to improve, and yet deployment remains constrained by market design, regulatory frameworks and infrastructure readiness.

Discussing Thailand’s experience, van den Broek pointed to issues such as grid access, third party participation, power resale restrictions and contract structures.

As he noted:

“The biggest barrier is at this moment maybe regulatory.”

The comment reflects a wider regional challenge. For many ASEAN markets, the next phase of renewable energy growth may depend less on technology innovation and more on policy reform, market flexibility and transmission investment.

A DIFFERENT KIND OF ENERGY TRANSITION

The discussion ultimately pointed towards a broader conclusion, that ASEAN’s energy transition is not slowing down. However, it is becoming more complex.

The region is no longer discussing decarbonisation in isolation. Questions of affordability, energy security, system resilience, infrastructure readiness and industrial competitiveness are becoming equally important. The destination remains unchanged, what is changing is the route.

For utilities, regulators and investors alike, the challenge now is building power systems capable of balancing all three sides of the energy trilemma while responding to a rapidly changing geopolitical and economic landscape.